SEASON FOOTBALL PREVIEW
It’s been a very busy offseason in the NFL and college football.
The Texans appear to have finally found the right head coach when they hired former star linebacker DeMeco Ryans to take over a franchise that has been the laughing stock of the NFL for the last few years.
Ryans was one of the best defensive players in the history of the Texans and when his playing days were finished due to an injury, the former Alabama standout linebacker joined the San Francisco 49ers coaching staff where he moved up the ranks and served as the team’s defensive coordinator the last two years. Last year, Ryans’ defense was the best in the NFL and featured Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa (18.5 sacks).
Texans owner Cal McNair might have gotten this hire right. This team is nowhere near a playoff contender, but General Manager Nick Caserio has been stockpiling talent the last couple of drafts and via free agency. The Texans drafted Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick in last spring’s NFL Draft, then traded for Arizona’s the third pick where they snatched Alabama All- American defensive end Will Anderson Jr. Anderson should be an impact player the moment he steps on the field. He’s that good, while it might take Stroud some time to adjust to the pro game. Houston fans need to be patient and give Stroud time to adapt to the pro game. While the Texans might not be a playoff team this year, their future is definitely looking up and that has to please their fans who have suffered through the Deshaun Watson debacle, and just seven wins over the last two seasons.
Ryans is one of five new head coaches this year. The four others are Frank Reich at Carolina, former Saints head coach Sean Payton at Denver, Shane Steichen at Indianapolis and Jonathan Gannon at Arizona. Steichen was the offensive coordinator of the Eagles, while Gannon was the Eagles’ defensive coordinator. Philly will be breaking in two new coordinators this year.
Speaking of new beginnings, former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers have moved onto the New York Jets. Jets fans hope Rodgers is the missing link to ending the Jets long playoff drought.
While a lot of attention will be focused on the Texans locally, the national spotlight will be on “H” town come January when NRG Stadium hosts the College Football Playoff (CFP) National Title Game on Monday, Jan. 8.
The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host the CFP semi-final games, with the winners advancing to Houston for a shot at the title. The Georgia Bulldogs will be looking for a third straight national title and have a very good shot at hitting the trifecta. Head coach Kirby Smart’s team returns six offensive and seven defensive starters and their schedule is an easy one.
But the big news in college football during the offseason has been realignment, and boy, have there been some eye-opening moves.
This will be the final season that Texas and Oklahoma will be members of the Big 12. In 2024, they will join the SEC (good luck with that Longhorn and Sooner fans!), while the 2023 season will see the University of Houston, BYU, Central Florida and Cincinnati join the Big 12. UH’s entry into the Big 12 has been long overdue and let’s hope they are prepared to make the move up from the AAC. In 2024, the Big 12 will expand to 16 teams as Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah join the conference. Four other Pac 12 schools, UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington will join the Big 10. That leaves only four teams left in the Pac 12, which means that league, which has been in existence since 1915, is pretty much dead.
While the expansion might be good for college football, it’s going to be a logistical nightmare for other sports, such as baseball, softball, swimming, volleyball and other lesser sports. Travel is going to be brutal. Think about it. The UCLA volleyball team could very well have to play to Columbus, OH on a Tuesday for a conference game against Ohio State. That’s not fair to the student-athletes who will have to deal with the travel and lost time in the classroom.
But that’s a matter for athletic directors and school presidents to handle. This space is dedicated to looking ahead to the 2023 college and pro football seasons, so let’s get started.
We will start with the college game and the Big 12.
Third-year Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is coming off an 8-5 season and has assembled a ton of talent in Austin. UT returns 10 offensive starters and six defensive starters. The only starter not returning is a big one as running back Bijan Robinson (1,580 rushing yards, 20 total TDs) as he has taken his talents to the Atlanta Falcons. If second-year starting QB Quinn Ewers has progressed and matured as the reports out of Austin say he has, the UT offense should be in good hands. Ewers had his ups and downs as a redshirt sophomore last year, passing for 2,177 yards with 15 TDs and six interceptions. If the ‘Horns get the Ewers who tossed four TDs in a 49-0 win over OU they should be the team to beat in the Big 12. If they get the Ewers who threw three picks in a 41-34 loss at Oklahoma State, then the race will be on for the conference title. Ewers has a lot of weapons returning in the passing game in wide receivers Xavier Worthy (60 receptions, 760 yards, 9 TDs) and Jordan Whittington (50 receptions, 652 yards, 1 TD) and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (54 receptions, 613 yards, 5 TDs). The UT defense will be led by linebacker Jaylon Ford (119 tackles in 2022).
Look for Texas Tech to be a dark horse in the Big 12 this year. Second-year head coach Joey McGuire led the Red Raiders to an 8-5 season in his first year in Lubbock and culminated it with a dominating 42-25 win over Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl. Tech returns veteran QB Tyler Shough (1,304 passing yards and 7 TDs in 7 games), a solid runner in Tahj Brooks (691 yards, 7 TDs) and a big-play receiver in Jerand Bradley (51 receptions, 744 yards, 6 TDs). The Red Raiders return eight offensive and six defensive starters and McGuire has been a recruiting machine his first two years in the Hub City. Shough is 8-0 as a starter.
You have to figure Oklahoma will rebound from its 6-7 disaster of a season, if not, head coach Brent Venables seat could get hot. Other teams that should contend for the Big 12 title include last year’s champ Kansas State, and TCU, which finished 13-2 and reached the CFP Title Game where they were walloped 65-7 by Georgia.
The SEC looks like it should be a three-team race between defending national champion Georgia (15-0 in 2022), Alabama (11-2) and LSU (10-4).
As stated earlier, Georgia returns a load of experience on both sides of the ball, except at QB where Carson Beck (310 yards, 4 TDs in 7 games of mop up duty) will be given the first shot to replace two-year starter Stetson Bennett IV. Beck has a strong arm and Georgia fans have been waiting for him to take over the offense. He will have plenty of help as running backs Kenny McIntosh (328 yards, 3 TDs/22 receptions, 242 yards, 2 TDs) and Daijun Edwards (769 yards, 7 TDs) and All- American tight end Brock Bowers (63 receptions, 942 yards, 7 TDs) should make his transition to the starting an easy one. Bowers has the talent to be the next big tight end at the next level. In his first seven seasons in Athens, Smart has forged an 80-15 record (84% winning percentage), two national titles and three trips to the CFP title game.
Alabama and head coach Nick Saban don’t like playing second fiddle to anyone in the SEC, especially Smart, who was Saban’s defensive coordinator for a number of years. The Crimson Tide lost its two best players to the NFL, in QB Bryce Young (3,328 yards, 32 TDs) and linebacker Will Anderson Jr. (51 tackles, 17 for loss, 10 sacks), but the cupboard isn’t bare in Tuscaloosa. The big question mark is who will replace Young. Saban has three candidates in Jalen Milroe (297 yards, 5 TDs), Ty Simpson and former Notre Dame QB Tyler Buchner (651 yards, 3 TDS). Milroe served as Young’s backup a year ago and had a big day in ‘Bama’s win over Arkansas when Young left with a shoulder injury, but he struggled against A&M, so the verdict is still out on whether or not he can handle the starting job. The Tide returns The Woodlands product Jace McClellan (655 yards, 7 TDs) at running back and solid receivers Ja’Cory Brooks (39 receptions, 674 yards, 8 TDs) and Jermaine Burton (40 receptions, 677 yards, 7 TDs). Linebacker Dallas Turner (37 tackles, 8 for loss, 4 sacks) and cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry (35 tackles, 1 interception, 15 passes defensed) will lead the way on defense.
LSU surprised everyone by winning the SEC West in head coach Brian Kelly’s first year as the Tigers head coach. The Tigers return a strong nucleus led by dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels (2,913 passing yards, 17 TDs/885 rushing yards, 6 TDs) and stud linebacker Harold Perkins (72 tackles, 7.5 sacks as a true freshman).
While LSU was the surprise team of the SEC, Texas A&M was the league’s biggest disappointment. After starting the year ranked No. 6 in the nation, Jimbo Fisher’s team limped to a 5-7 finish. Fisher’s seat is getting hot and the Ags need a turnaround season to keep it from imploding. A&M returns eight offensive and eight defensive starters with hopes the young guys who saw a lot of playing time a year ago have matured. Conner Wiegman (896 yards, 8 TDs) should start under center, but if he struggles, veteran QB Max Johnson (517 yards, 3 TDs) is a capable replacement. Look for Fisher to get speedy wide receiver Aines Smith (15 receptions, 291 yards, 2 TDs in just four games) plenty of looks in the passing and running game. A&M does return two big-play WRs in Evan Stewart (53 receptions, 649 yards, 4 TDs) and Moose Muhammad II (38 receptions, 610 yards, 4 TDs). Muhammad is the son of former Carolina Panthers wide receiver Mushin Muhammad. Both were freshman a year ago.
In the Big 10, it should be another battle between Michigan and Ohio State in the East, while Wisconsin looks like the team to beat in the West. Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines own a two-game winning streak over Ryan Day’s Buckeyes and return QB J.J. McCarthy (2,719 yards, 22 TDs) and one of the nation’s top backs in Blake Corum (1,463 yards, 18 TDs). OSU has to replace Stroud and his 85 TDs passes over the last two years. Whoever lands the job will have a strong running game to rely on as back Miyan Williams (825 yards, 14 TDs) and Daallan Hayden (553 yards, 5 TDs) return. The Buckeyes have one of the best wide receivers in the country in Marvin Harrison Jr. (77 receptions, 1,263 yards, 14 TDs). Harrison is the son of Hall of Fame wide receiver Marvin Harrison.
Look for USC (11-3) , led by Heisman Trophy winning QB Caleb Williams (4,537 passing yards, 42 TDs/382 rushing yards, 10 TDs) to battle Oregon (10-3) and QB Bo Nix (3,593 passing yards, 29 TDs/510 rushing yards, 14 TDs) for the Pac 12 title.
Notre Dame (9-4) and second-year head coach Marcus Freeman could also make some noise this year. The Irish will have Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman (3,701 yards, 38 TDs) at QB and a strong running game led by Logan Diggs (822 yards, 4 TDs) and Audric Estime (920 yards, 11 TDs).
I’ll have my conference champs and the 4 CFP teams later in this column.
Turning our attention to the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs, fresh off their second Super Bowl title in four years, will be looking to become the first team since the 2004-05 Patriots to win back-to-back Lombardi Trophies. SB 57 will be played on Sunday, Feb. 11 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
As long as QB Patrick Mahomes (5,250 yards, 41 TDs) and tight end Travis Kelce (110 receptions, 1,338 yards, 12 TDs) remain healthy, Andy Reid’s Chiefs will be the team to beat once again.
But they will have to get through a loaded AFC to get to a second straight SB, and their third in five years.
In the AFC South, Jacksonville is the defending division winner and appears to be the best team in a suspect division. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence (4,113 yards, 25 TDs) came of age in 2022 and has a lot of talent around him in running back Travis Etienne (1,125 yards, 5 TDs/ 35 receptions, 316 yards) and wide receiver Christian Kirk (84 receptions, 1,108 yards, 8 TDs). The Jags also added former Atlanta wide receiver Calvin Ridley to the mix after he was reinstated after serving a one-year suspension for gambling on NFL games.
The Texans should be much improved, but have a way to go before they contend with Jacksonville for the division title. Stroud (8,123 yards, 85 TDs in two years at OSU) should start at QB and earn his stripes. Running back Dameon Pierce (939 yards, 5 TDs as a rookie) and wide receiver Nico Collins (37 receptions, 481 yards, 2 TDs in 10 games) will need to step up their games to help Stroud.
The AFC North should be an interesting race. All four teams are capable of winning the division. Baltimore is hoping dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson (2,242 passing yards, 17 TDs/764 rushing yards, 3 TDs in 12 games) is fully healthy. If he is, the Ravens could be dangerous on offense with the return of tight end Mark Andrews (73 receptions, 847 yards, 5 TDs) and new wide receiver Odell Beckham.
Browns fans are hoping Deshaun Watson (1,102 yards, 7 TDs in 6 games) returns to his Texans form and if he does, the Browns could be a team to watch in the AFC. They have strong running game led by Nick Chubb (1,525 yards, 12 TDs) and a capable wideout in Amari Cooper (78 receptions, 1,160 yards, 9 TDs).
Look for the Steelers to be much improved, but the class of the division will still be the Cincinnati Bengals (12-4), who have played in two straight AFC title games. Quarterback Joe Burrow (4,475 yards, 35 TDs) has perhaps the best receiving corps in the league with Ja’Mar Chase (87 receptions, 1,046 yards, 9 TDs), Tee Higgins (74 receptions, 1,029 yards, 7 TDs) and Tyler Boyd (58 receptions, 762 yards, 5 TDs). If the defense plays better, the Bengals could very well challenge KC once again for the AFC title.
The Chiefs are still the best team in the AFC West, but look for the Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) to give them a run for their money this year. They too have a top five QB in Justin Herbert (4,739 yards, 25 TDs) and the most versatile running back in the NFL in Austin Ekeler (915 rushing yards, 13 TDs/107 receptions, 722 yards, 5 TDs). If wide receiver Keenan Allen (66 receptions, 752 yards, 4 TDs) can remain healthy for the entire season, LA could challenge for the AFC West title.
The AFC East should be a fun race to watch. Buffalo, Miami and the Jets should battle for the division title, while the Patriots will be bringing up the rear. When was the last time the Pats and head coach Bill Belichick were counted out this early?
Buffalo (13-3) will once again rely on QB Josh Allen (4,283 passing yards, 35 TDs/762 rushing yards, 7 TDs) and wide receiver Stefon Diggs (108 receptions, 1,429 yards, 11 TDs) and Gabriel Davis (48 receptions, 517 yards, 6 TDs). They need to get something out of their running game. The defense should be fine with a healthy Von Miller coming off the edge.
The Dolphins will have no trouble putting up points with QB Tua Tagavailoa (3,548 yards, 25 TDS). Tua has been cleared after suffering multiple concussions last year, which cut his season short. He has perhaps the two fastest wide receivers in the NFL in Tyreek Hill (119 receptions, 1,710 yards, 7 TDs) and Jaylen Waddle (75 receptions, 1,356 yards, 8 TDs). Miami will need to play better on defense to make a dent in the AFC.
The Jets are pinning their hopes on Rodgers (3,695 yards, 26 TDs in his final year in Green Bay) and he has plenty of weapons in his new gig. NY signed former Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (1,173 rushing yards, 8 TDs/39 receptions, 295 yards, 2 TDs), who should pair with Breece Hall (463 rushing yards, 4 TDs/19 receptions, 218 yards, 1 TD in 7 games) to give the Jets a formidable running game. If the Jets have success running the ball, that will set up the play action pass for Rodgers to make plays down field to second-year WR Garrett Wilson (83 receptions, 1,103 yards, 4 TDs) and former GB teammate Allen Lizzard. Wilson was the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022.
Turning our attention to the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagle (14-3) are the defending conference champs and suffered a number of losses to the roster and both coordinators following their Super Bowl run.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts (3,701 passing yards, 22 TDs/760 rushing yards, 13 TDs) had a breakout year and an amazing individual performance in the Super Bowl loss to KC, as he accounted for four touchdowns (three rushing, one passing). He’ll have a new running back in injury-prone D’Andre Swift (542 yards, 5 TDs/48 receptions, 389 yards, 3 TDs) who came over from Detroit. He still has two top flight wide receivers in A.J. Brown (88 receptions, 1,496 yards, 11 TDs) and Devonta Smith (95 receptions, 1, 196 yards, 7 TDs) and a dependable tight end in Dallas Goedert (55 receptions, 702 yards, 3 TDs).
The Eagles will be challenged by the Cowboys in the NFC East. The Cowboys finished 12-5 a year ago and they will go as far as Dak Prescott can take them. Prescott missed five games last year after injuring his ankle in the season opener against Tampa Bay. His backup, Cooper Rush, led Dallas to a 4-1 record in his absence. Prescott (2,860 yards, 23 TDs/15 interceptions in 12 games) has to cut down on the turnovers and prove he can win the big game. He’s yet to prove that. The running game is now in the hands of speedy Tony Pollard (1,007 yards, 9 TDs/39 receptions, 371 yards, 3 TDs) after owner Jerry Jones released former starter Ezekiel Elliott (who recently signed with New England) in the offseason. Dallas has a strong receiving corps led by emerging star CeeDee Lamb (107 receptions, 1,359 yards, 9 TDs), the dependable Michael Gallup and new arrival Brandin Cooks (57 receptions, 699 yards, 3 TDs last year with the Texans. While Dallas should be solid on offense, they should be very, very good on defense, perhaps a top 5 defense in the league. The Dallas defense is led by linebacker Micah Parsons (13.5 sacks). The Dallas defense recorded 54 sacks, picked off 16 passes and scored three TDs in 2022. Look for that unit to be the difference maker this year.
The NFC North looks like a two team race between Detroit and last year’s division winner Minnesota. The Lions lost six of their first seven games, but won seven of their last nine to finish with a winning record (9-8). Head coach Dan Campbell appears to have turned things around in the Motor City. The Lions have a fun and exciting offense led by QB Jared Goff (4,438 yards, 29 TDs) and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (106 receptions, 1,161 yards, 6 TDs). They should be solid in the running game with former Bear David Montgomery and rookie Jahmry Gibbs (926. Yards, 7 TDs/44 receptions, 444 yards, 3 TDs at Alabama in 2022). If the defense improves just a bit, the Lions could be roaring this year.
They will need to subdue a Vikings team that has one of the top wide receivers in Justin Jefferson (128 receptions, 1,809 yards, 8 TDs) and drafted big-play WR Jordan Addison from USC in the first round. They also have a solid tight end in T.J. Hockenson (60 receptions, 519 yards, 3 TDs), who they acquired in a mid-season trade from the Lions. With Cook now gone, the running game will be in the hands of backup Alexander Mattison (283 yards, 5 TDs). The Vikes just need QB Kirk Cousins to be his steady self (4,547 yards, 29 TDs).
Green Bay fans are going to find out what life will be like without Rodgers. Third-year man Jordan Love (600 yards, 3 TDs in 10 pro games) will need to count on a strong running game led by Aaron Jones (1,121 yards, 2 TDs/59 receptions, 395 yards, 5 TDs) and A.J. Dillon (770 yards, 7 TDs) to take pressure off of Love.
The NFC West should be San Francisco’s (13-4) for the taking. They do have an issue at QB as last year’s surprise star Brock Purdy (1,374 yards, 13 TDs in 5 games) is recovering from offseason elbow surgery. But they have a star at running back in Christian McCaffrey (746 rushing yards, 6 TDs/52 receptions, 464 yards, 4 TDs) who was acquired from Carolina in midseason. The versatile Deebo Samuel (232 rushing yards, 3 TDs/56 receptions, 632 yards, 2 TDs) will look to bounce back after a so-so season in 2022. The 49ers did get a breakout season from wide out Brandon Aiyuk (78 receptions, 1,015 yards, 8 TDs). They also have the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Bosa and the league’s No. 1- ranked defense in 2022.
Seattle (9-8) was the surprise team in the NFC earning a playoff spot with Geno Smith (4,282 yards, 30 TDs) as their QB. He took over for Russell Wilson who was traded to Denver. Smith has plenty of weapons to help him out in second year running back Kenneth Walker II (1,050 yards, 9 TDs) and productive wide receivers D.J. Metcalf (90 receptions, 1,048 yards, 6 TDs) and Tyler Lockett (84 receptions, 1,033 yards, 9 TDs). They also drafted former Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had some productive years as a Buckeye.
Below are one man’s predictions for the upcoming college and NFL seasons.
BIG 12
Texas over Texas Tech
SEC
EAST – Georgia
WEST – Alabama
SEC Champion – Alabama
BIG 10
EAST – Michigan
WEST – Wisconsin
BIG 10 CHAMPION – Michigan
PAC 12
NORTH – Oregon
SOUTH – USC
PAC 12 CHAMPION – USC
CFP SEMIFINALS ROSE BOWL – Georgia over Michigan
SUGAR BOWL – Alabama over USC
CFP CHAMPION ALABAMA
NFL
AFC SOUTH JACKSONVILLE
AFC NORTH CINCINNATI
AFC EAST BUFFALO
AFC WEST KANSAS CITY
AFC WILD CARDS BALTIMORE, NEW YORK JETS AND LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
AFC TITLE GAME KANSAS CITY OVER LOS ANGELES
NFC EAST DALLAS
NFC SOUTH NEW ORLEANS
NFC NORTH DETROIT
NFC WEST SAN FRANCISCO
NFC WILD CARDS PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA AND GREEN BAY
NFC TITLE GAME DALLAS OVER SAN FRANCISCO
SUPER BOWL 58 DALLAS OVER KANSAS CITY